Dynasty Archetypes: Tight End - Dynasty League Football (2024)

As a dynasty manager, imagine having the ability to accurately predict the future performance of a player, based on the past…

In this new series I’ll be exploring Dynasty Archetypes: a method of predicting future player fantasy production, based upon grouping players with similar traits, usage and output. By understanding a player projection or expected journey based on the results of similar player types, it is easier to calculate the range of outcomes of the asset and facilitate the optimal team build.

In the previous article, I outlined the different archetypes at wide receiver, with the final positional review outlining tight end – a traditionally high-risk and shallow position, now with greater depth than ever but still with significant injury risk. The tight end archetypes used in this article are simple, with the key driver focusing on the percentage of offensive snaps taken from the slot position within the offense (slot rate). The parameters for the tight end archetypes are: 0-20% for ‘in-line’, 20-40% for ‘balanced’ and 40%+ for ‘slot’ tight end archetype.

Tight End Archetypes

Slot

The slot archetype offers an excellent floor and ceiling combination, with a clear pathway to a consistent pass volume. With the tight end effectively working as a big slot receiver, it creates an ideal size advantage and matchup problems facing a slot cornerback or a likely free release versus zone coverage. Another benefit of this archetype is the lack of blocking, both as the formation dictates a likely pass play but also the in-line tight end spot could potentially pass block, the slot role is pure receiving on a pass play. In the run game, the slot archetype is avoiding squaring off against the bigger and powerful linemen, hence reducing injury risk.

Reviewing the 2023 data below, the clear demand for successful fantasy output can be found in the slot archetype, with three of the top five performing tight ends landing in this grouping. It is worth noting Travis Kelce, Evan Engram and Mark Andrews are all multi-year TE1 performers, with excellent fantasy output over time, providing longevity at the position.

Where the slot archetype can become less appealing is for the players with overall reduced volume or talent. Team-specific philosophy and talent at the slot wide receiver position could suppress the number of players on the slot archetype, making it difficult to predict and find this appealing asset. The other main concern is negative game script, a team playing with a lead would reduce the necessity for slot usage and either take the player off the field or increase usage in line.

Despite a relative mix of archetypes making up the position, the slot archetype at tight end is strongest for consistent high-end outcome. (Credit: Player Profiler)

Balanced

The most popular tight end archetype is balanced, the ideal split between slot and in-line usage, with over 50% of last season’s top 12 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) consisting of the balanced archetype. Where a true slot archetype has limited snap percentage due to offensive formation, the balanced archetype will traditionally have an increased number of plays per game.

Along with excellent usage, the balanced archetype is less volatile against game script, where this alignment can be used frequently in both pass and run situations. In contrast to wide receiver, there is no advantage of increased playing time in the balanced archetype over slot archetype at tight end. The balanced archetype brings real-life flexibility, to flip between numerous alignments to find the most advantageous matchup to exploit. With an ability for strong usage in any alignment, the archetype is less affected by a change in coaching staff, resulting in a safer asset long-term.

In-Line

The tight end archetype of in-line is the highest usage, as a key contributor in the run game, in addition to the usage as a pass blocker and pass receiver – granted the latter is the only important factor for dynasty leagues. Out of all tight end archetypes the in-line has the highest snap percentage, however being involved in more blocking and against bigger opponents leads to an increase in injury.

The in-line archetype is highly volatile, both from the increased injury risk plus the type of route, carries less upside as the increase of block and release or shorter routes around the line of scrimmage. The blocking assignments or later developing routes can also result in reduced or more likely inconsistent volume. Generally this archetype can still be positive for dynasty however with increased injury and usage risk. However there is upside, particularly in a best-ball setting. With the archetype including strong performers Sam LaPorta and George Kittle, the element of set-and-forget type talent exists, with the warning of volatility on a weekly basis considering the history of the archetype.

Brock Bowers is the highlight of the 2024 class, both as a generational talent and solo player within his archetype. (Credit: PFF)

2024 Rookie Application

The 2024 tight end group offers limited potential outside of the top two prospects, Ben Sinnott an above-average talent taken in round two by the Washington Commanders and generational talent Brock Bowers, who landed in round one with the Las Vegas Raiders.

The standout prospect is Bowers, the sole member of the slot archetype tight end group, with elite usage from the slot alignment. The most consistent and high-end performing tight ends over the last decade have been Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, both of the same archetype grouping as Bowers. While it would be unwise to assume his pathway will be 100% the same trajectory as his veteran peers, Bowers is arguably a more talented college prospect. With small pockets of the market fading him for his landing spot, Bowers is becoming a value in rookie and dynasty startup drafts.

All of the remaining players from the above rookie tight ends form part of the balanced archetype group. Theo Johnson and Erick All are on the cusp of the slot archetype, showing great pass-catching upside, albeit with less overall talent to their profiles. Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jared Wiley are on the lower half of the archetype, with greater volatility in their outlooks. The best of the balanced archetype is Sinnott, who looks like an all-around solid prospect, with a trajectory of a consistent low-TE1 in dynasty. Players within the balanced archetype are more likely to change archetype in the future, however of the group, Sinnott is the most appealing in dynasty leagues.

Overall

The market perception of tight end landscape is the balanced archetype is key to dynasty, due to flexibility and safety as an asset. The archetype providing an edge and consistent, strong performance is the slot archetype. Where the landscape becomes more ambiguous is the in-line tight-end, which based on recent examples can be profitable but with a higher range of weekly outcomes.

In general, all archetypes can be successful in dynasty, with all considered as part of optimal team builds. The highest floor-ceiling combination is the slot archetype, provided the talent is there to generate the snap share and resulting target volume. The balanced archetype is the safest asset at tight end: lower fluctuations, less outside influence and can be a strong contributor to your team. LaPorta will spearhead the in-line archetype, which has low numbers within the grouping, whereas Kittle has always been known as a boom-bust player on a weekly basis, meaning LaPorta’s relatively consistent rookie season could be an outlier. The advice is to treat LaPorta with mild caution and with an expectation of greater fluctuations moving forward.

The dynasty archetypes I’ve used in this article are guidelines, where you can tweak and create your own, base it on other specific metrics, body type etc. The idea is to highlight that grouping players can help you predict future players with similar characteristics, allowing you to formulate a strategy to acquire a perfect blend of archetypes, setting you up to win in your dynasty leagues. Overall the 2024 tight end class offers a future superstar in Bowers, a strong prospect in Sinnott and several steady assets who could contribute in time. None of the tight end archetypes would deter me from drafting, but clearly the most appealing and with an excellent future outlook is Bowers.