Election latest: 'Real collapse' for Tories after 'uplift' in support for Reform - with Labour tipped for best-ever win (2024)

Our main story tonight is a new YouGov projection suggesting Labour are heading for a majority of 200 seats in the next parliament.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak's Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats - down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in 2019.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer's Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, beating all previous records for the party.

The Lib Dems would win 67 seats, six times what they won in 2019, while John Swinney's SNP projected to drop to 20 seats, Nigel Farage's Reform party on course for five, the Greens two and Plaid Cymru four.

Watch the full breakdown of the poll from our deputy political editor Sam Coatesbelow:

Today we're launching something I'm very excited about: our leaders interview series

We're aiming to have in-depth interviews with all the leaders of the main political parties hoping to win your vote at the general election.

We want to examine their vision for the country, test their manifestos, and find out a bit more about them as people.

We're kicking off with Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats.

His party – according to the polls – could quadruple their seats at the election, so they could be a real force in parliament, and their priorities and policies matter.

But are the Lib Dems being honest about the difficult decisions this country faces, or is this a party that likes to have its cake and eat it too?

They make ambitious promises on renewable energy, but say they won't override local communities.

They make ambitious promises on building homes, but also say they won't override local communities.

They want lower immigration, but policies in their manifesto would increase the number of people coming here.

The Lib Dems have always had a bit of a reputation for saying different things to different people - and of local candidates having a different message to the national one.

So is this a party we can trust?

We'll bring you the full interview a little later - but you can watch a teaser below:

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Tonight features the first of Sophy's leader interviews for the 2024 general election campaign: Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats.

The pair discuss the party's plans for immigration, its stance on potentially rejoining the EU's single market, and why Sir Ed has been so open about caring for his son.

And of course, his campaign stunts come up too.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Irish republican party Sinn Fein has launched its manifesto in Belfast today.

Here are the main pledges from the party's manifesto:

• Strong legal protections for workers and the right to join a trade union;
• Delivering flagship projects such as Magee University expansion, building the A5 and A6 roads and the redevelopment of Casem*nt Park, and other projects such as Narrow Water Bridge and the Ulster Canal;
• Fight for a fair funding model for the North which meets the needs of public services;
• Continue support and solidarity to the people of Palestine - seize every opportunity to call for an immediate ceasefire, release of all hostages, humanitarian aid, an end to genocide, and a free and independent Palestinian state;
• End chronic underfunding of public services and undervaluing of public service workers;
• Implement multiannual budgeting, sothe Executive is better equipped to plan and make longer-term investments, such as tackling hospital waiting lists;
• Press for the transfer of fiscal powers to the Executive to allow it to protect existing services and deliver improved public services, including powers for progressive taxation and the power to raise the minimum wage;
• For decisions to be taken by Executive ministers and not ministers in London;
• Establishing a Citizen's Assembly for people to engage in a dialogue addressing constitutional change;
• Delivering an Ending Violence Against Women and Girls strategy;
• Uphold the rights of all victims of the conflict to information, maximum disclosure and truth.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the general election campaign and today the second of their threeMRPpolling projectionsis out.

It makes for very bleak reading for the Conservatives, suggesting theyhave not made any gains during the campaign andcould slump to historically low seat numbers.

The poll also suggests Labour's majority is up, the Liberal Democrats areup as well, and Reform UK couldwin several seats.

On this episode, Niall Paterson analyses the implications of today’s poll with our deputy political editorSam Coates.

Plus, Sky’s political correspondent Tamara Cohen joins us from Edinburgh where she was at the launch of the SNP manifesto.

A police officer has been arrested and suspended over alleged bets about the timing of the general election.

He is a member of the Metropolitan Police's Royalty and Specialist Protection Command, which provides personal close protection to ministerial VIPs and members of the royal family.

Sky News understands the officer was working in Rishi Sunak's close protection team.

The Gambling Commission informed the Met Police last week they were investigating the activity by the police constable.

The matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's directorate of professional standards who opened an investigation.

The officer was also removed from operational duties.

The officer was arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further inquiries.

The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.

The Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences.

History teaches us polls tend to narrow during election campaigns and governments tend to recover throughout the race.

But Patrick English, the director of political analytics at YouGov, says "we're just not seeing that at the moment".

Discussing this evening's poll for Sky News, he says the real change is in the Conservative number: "They're the ones that have really started suffering even further, a further erosion of their support."

He says Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has a lot to do with that.

"We've seen a real uplift in Reform UK support, they've started taking seats directly from the Conservatives according to our projections, and this is starting to cost the Conservatives further seats, particularly in the south where the Liberal Democrats are challenging them," he adds.

'A real collapse in Tory support'

Asked how much things can change before polling day, Mr English says while the Tories "might recover a little bit of that Reform vote", Labour are clearly on course for a "big victory".

"We're looking at a real collapse of the Conservative support," he adds.

"Perhaps there might be a little bit of a squeeze on the smaller parties, but difficult to say at the minute."

This evening's mammoth YouGov poll for Sky News is projecting a whopping 425 seats for Labour and a lowly 108 for the Tories.

The Lib Dems would win 67, the SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid four, the Greens two, and 18 would go to other parties.

You can see what result is projected for your constituency below:

Since the last YouGov MRP projection at the beginning of June, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since then, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid Cymru up two.

Reform UK wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win zero according to YouGov. This includes Reform leader Nigel Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a "toss-up" - but if all toss-up and close races in every seat where the Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132.

The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under then-leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares implied by this MRP are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June.

The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday to this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the South East, South West and East of England.

The party risks a complete or near wipeout in the North East, North West and Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll projects many big names will lose their seats on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to the projection.

Let's have a look at who they are and what their previous majority in their constituencies was.

Jeremy Hunt

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been the Tory MP for South West Surrey since 2005.

He held the seat with a 32,191 vote majority (53.3%) in 2019.

Mr Hunt is standing in the newly created constituency of Godalming and Ash this year against the Green's Ruby Tucker, Labour's James Walsh, the Liberal Democrats' Paul Follows, Reform UK's Graham Drage and Women's Equality's Harriet Williams.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire since 2005. He won the seat with 27,394 votes in 2019, a majority of 52.6%.

He is standing against Jack Aaron for Reform UK, Sarah Butcher for the Greens, Andrew Lewin for Labour and John Munro for the Liberal Democrats.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has served as the leader of the House of Commons and has been the MP for Portsmouth North since 2010.

Ms Mordaunt, who has twice run for the Tory party leadership, held the seat with 61.4% of the vote in 2019, securing 28,172 votes.

She will face Simon Dodd from the Liberal Democrats, Amanda Martin from Labour, Stuart Robinson from the Greens and Melvyn Todd from Reform UK.

Victoria Atkins

Health Secretary Victoria Atkins was elected MP for Louth and Horncastle in Lincolnshire in 2015 and garnered 38,021 votes (72.7%) in 2019.

She will face Iconic Arty-Pole from the Monster Raving Loony party, independent Paul Hugill, Reform UK's Sean Matthews, Marcus Moorehouse for the SDP, Ross Pepper for the Lib Dems, Jonathan Slater for Labour and Robert Watson for the Greens.

Lucy Frazer

The culture secretary has been the MP for South East Cambridgeshire since 2015.

In 2019, she won 32,187 votes, or 50%.

Ms Frazer will stand in the new constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire against Robert Bayley for the SDP, Charlotte Cane for the Lib Dems, Andy Cogan for the Greens, Ryan Coogan for Reform UK, Hoo-Ray Henry for the Monster Raving Loony party, Labour's Elizabeth McWilliams and independents Obi Monye and Rob Rawlins.

Thangam Debbonaire

One Labour shadow cabinet minister, Thangam Debbonaire, is predicted to lose her seat to the Greens.

The shadow culture secretary has been MP for Bristol West since 2015 and garnered 62.3% of the vote with 47,028 votes in 2019.

The seat will be renamed Bristol Central and Ms Debonaire will be up against Reform UK's Robert Clarke, the Lib Dems' Nicholas Coombes, Carla Denyer from the Green party, Kellie-Jay Keen from the Party of Women and Conservative Samuel Williams.

Other notable Conservatives casualties are:

• Jacob Rees-Mogg, former leader of the House of Commons (North East Somerset and Hanham);
• Iain Duncan Smith, former Tory leader (Chingford and Woodford Green);
• Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister (Wycombe);
• Liam Fox, former defence secretary (North Somerset);
• Stephen Crabb, former work and pensions secretary (Mid and South Pembrokeshire).

Additionally, seats previously held by five former Conservative prime ministers are set to be lost by the party:

• Huntingdon (John Major’s old seat) is set to go Labour;
• Maidenhead (Theresa May’s old seat) is set to go Lib Dem;
• Old Bexley and Sidcup (Edward Health’s old seat) is set to go Labour;
• Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson’s old seat) is set to go Labour;
• Witney (David Cameron's old seat) is set to go Lib Dem.