Election latest: Farage told to 'shut down Reform' if he wants to lead Tories - as minister predicts election defeat (2024)

Pollsters at Savanta have asked 2,287 people how they intend to vote on 4 July.

The results suggest the gap between the Conservatives and Labour is down to 15 points - the narrowest in a month.

The Tories are up to 24% of people - their highest score in a month.

The full results - along with the change on the week before - are as follows:

• Labour 39 (+1)
• Tories 24 (+3)
• Reform 13 (-1)
• Lib Dems 10 (-1)
• Greens 4 (-2)
• SNP 3 (+1)
• Other 7 (=)

Since Rishi Sunak called the election, Sky News' Politics Hub has been looking back over memorable moments from campaigns gone by.

FromDavid Cameron'sfootball own goal, to an upstart Nick Clegg emergingas the unlikely victor from the UK's first televised leaders debate, there were plenty to choose from.

We've collated them all below for you to reminisce on:

The first big moment of election night on Thursday is the 10pm exit poll.

It's the clearest indicator of how the parties have done and who could form the next government.

Commissioned by the broadcasters - Sky, BBC and ITV - the fieldwork is carried out by pollster Ipsos, which will have interviewers at 133 polling stations around the country this year.

Our economics and data editor Ed Conway has been looking at the science and security behind this key moment that will set the tone for the long night that follows…

That concludes our coverage of tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge - the show will return at 7pm tomorrow. In the meantime, stay with us for the latest election news and analysis.

Harriet Harman, Labour's former minister for women and equalities, tellsSophy Ridgeshe wants to see women in parliament working cross-party to make a difference after the election.

"It might be we have as many as 250 new women in the House of Commons, re-elected and new women, and that's going to make parliament very different," she says.

"And I really hope that they'll actually work cross-party.

"I hope they will not just put the party first always, but actually put women first and be a bit subversive in working together.

"If they do that, I think they can really make a difference on things like childcare, equal pay, domestic violence.

"So they need to be a bit subversive and rebellious."

Tory peer Kate Fall says she "completely" agrees.

She adds that it's "important that you have strong women's voices in both chambers - especially in the Commons".

Sophy Ridgeis now asking the panel about concerns around people who want to vote not being able to because of delays to postal ballots being delivered - leaving some out of luck before setting off on holiday.

Harriet Harman, former Labour deputy leader, says Rishi Sunak should not have called the election at a time when the Scottish school holidays were under way, and says "he probably didn't think about it".

She says across the country "at least one in five people are voting by post", so the ones that have already been sent will now be "piling up in the councils".

"The electoral returning officers call in the agents of each candidate, and they open them before Thursday," she reveals.

"The agents are there to make sure it's all proper and everything is in order."

She goes on to say all around the country now there are agents who are seeing the votes and seeing the results right now.

Given most people won't vote on Thursday, "they are not the final result, but word starts seeping out about what has been seen by those agents", she adds.

Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker has explained why he wants to have a run at the leadership of the Conservative Party - after the election he believes the Tories will lose.

Mr Baker says he does not want to pre-empt Rishi Sunak standing down, but says he does want to run to replace him.

Asked to explain why, he says: "The reality is that my colleagues have sent for me before the referendum, after the referendum, during COVID and over net zero.

"And on all four occasions, I've led actual MPs to a great degree of success - and I wouldn't mind the chance to do it again."

He adds: "I've got 30 years of leadership experience in the armed forces, in the private sector, in parliament and in government."

Pointing to his time as Northern Ireland minister and Brexit minister, he claims people "can see my record is one of success".

You can watch Mr Baker's full interview below:

Asked about lessons that will need to be learned for the Tories in the future, Steve Baker says the first thing that that needs to be done is "we need to earn trust".

The cabinet minister says"that's going to require the party to internalise debates which otherwise have spilled out into the public domain".

He says "our party's going to mourn loss" and will need to "earn the right to be heard" again by the public, before setting out a "really coherent programme for government".

Farage 'cannot be welcomed' into Tory party

Asked if there is any space for Nigel Farage in the party after the election, he says he has been "clear" about this.

"A person who has deliberately set out to destroy the Conservative Party cannot subsequently be welcomed into it," he says.

"That is what he set out to do with Richard Tice."

'Want to join Tories? Shut down Reform'

"Unfortunately, his party attracts a number of people who I would absolutely not allow in the Conservative Party," he adds, referring to Reform candidates who've been dropped after making racist comments.

"Nigel can't have it both ways. If he wants to be a Conservative, he should shut down his party and join ours."

Northern Ireland Secretary Steve Baker appears to have conceded the election to the Labour Party.

Speaking to Sophy Ridge, Mr Baker says "we all accept that the danger now is a Labour supermajority".

He says the Tories would "love to win", but people would "guffaw" if he said a Conservative victory was possible with the current state of the polling.

Mr Baker then says what is important is for there to be as many opposition MPs as possible to hold Labour to account.

"If Keir Starmer has a majority of 250 he'll have practically untrammelled power," he says.

Tory campaign has been 'embarrassing'

The minister says Labour has not figured in the difficulty of running a country in an era with WhatsApp.

Mr Baker helped foment backbench rebellions against his own prime minister during Brexit.

He warns Labour will descend into "Kremlinology" around which faction of the party is going where.

But Mr Baker admits "elements" of the Conservative Party's campaign have been "embarrassing".

"Certainly nobody with inside knowledge should be placing a bet," the minister says, and he also points to the D-Day fiasco.

Jonathan Reynolds is asked why Sir Keir Starmer's approval ratings are so low given Labour look on course to win the election, to which he replies: "I think people are cynical."

"I think they too often have seen such poor government," he says.

"They have stopped believing politics can make things any better. I think that reflects on all political leaders.

"But I know from what Sir Keir has achieved as leader of the opposition, that if he's anywhere near as successful, if he becomes prime minister, I think people will recognise that a great deal.

"And I know him personally, and I know he has the skills and attributes required to be a very good prime minister."

He also says Labour changed in response to the 2019 defeat, and it's Sir Keir's leadership "that has directly contributed to Labour being in a position to contest this election".

Labour's shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds is speaking toSophy Ridgetonight.

The first question he is asked about is Sir Keir Starmer's commitment to finishing work at 6pm on Fridays so he can spend time with his teenage children, something he's said he hopes he can continue if he becomes PM.

Mr Reynolds says anyone who has worked with Sir Keir can "testify to his professionalism, to his ferocious work ethic".

He adds Sir Keir is always "on it" and "always prepared".

More Cameron or Brown?

Asked if Sir Keir was going to be more "chillaxing David Cameron" than "Gordon Brown with his red box in the early hours of the morning", Mr Reynolds says the Labour leader has "professionalism and work ethic in everything that he does".

Mr Reynolds says his leader is putting the point across that he will "still be a dad" - something he thinks is important.